Climate Change and the Pacific

While the Pacific is often used as the “poster-child” of climate change – complete with images of islands submerged by rising seas – the reality is more complex, though no less urgent. The relationship between climate change and the movement of people is particularly important. People in the Pacific, and indeed throughout the world, have always moved because of changes in their environment. But today the pressures are increasing as a result of long-term changes in climate, but also because of settlement patterns, population growth, and economic pressures. Rather than whole communities having to abandon their small island states because of surging waves, it is more likely that we will see more people moving via traditional economic migration routes. It will also likely be hard to tell if people are moving because of the effects of climate change or because they seek better economic prospects elsewhere. Most people will move within the borders of their countries, but particularly in the Pacific, there may be increasing population movements across borders. 

The Pacific Islands comprises 22 countries and territories, with a combined population of 9.2 million. The region includes 7,500 islands, of which 300 are inhabited, and extends over a huge area, mostly sea, of 30 million square kilometers. The population of Pacific Island states ranges from 10,000 in Tuvalu to almost 7 million in Papua New Guinea. Nearly all of the Pacific Island countries fall under the UN’s category of Small Island Developing States, or “SIDS” as they are known in UN parlance.

The Pacific Islands, like all small island countries, have limited land and little economies. Remote from main shipping lines, they incur high external shipping costs. Many rely heavily on tourism. With large coastal zones, their ability to mitigate against the effects of disasters is limited.

Historically and culturally, Pacific populations have a deep attachment to their land and to the ocean; the prospect of having to leave their traditional lands and communities is a wrenching one, particularly when the pressures to move are coming from forces beyond their control. Although it is expected to suffer disproportionately from the effects of climate change, the Pacific region is responsible for only a tiny percentage of the world’s greenhouse gas emissions but is already feeling the effects. This raises questions of international responsibility and of justice.

The Pacific and Climate Change

Pacific Island leaders have often been on center stage of international discussions on climate change, passionately urging wealthy countries to reduce their emissions and to agree to stronger targets and protocols to reduce the effects of climate change (or at least to slow its pace). These are life and death issues for the Pacific Islands and for other small island states. Kiribati’s President Anote Tong underlined the urgency of actions to mitigate the effects of climate change for the Pacific and the world:

“…as an international community we cannot continue with business as usual, we must work together to respond and act with responsibility; we must listen, take heed of what is happening in these most vulnerable states in the frontline and act accordingly, act with urgency...what is happening in these frontline States concerns all of us... it must be taken as an early warning to the international community and a precursor for what could ultimately be the fate of humanity if further action is delayed.”

Since the beginning of recorded history, the inhabitants of the Pacific Islands have been particularly susceptible to the climate. Natural hazards occur in this part of the world with relatively higher frequencies and proportionally more immediate effects than in most other regions. Cyclones, earthquakes, tsunamis, volcanic eruptions, and flooding have been frequent. The region also experiences the less-visible effects of slow-onset disasters, such as droughts, riverine erosion, coral bleaching, and increasing salination of its soils and water, often aggravated by human-caused environmental damage and industrial development.

Not all Pacific Islands are equally affected – those that are made up of atolls are more vulnerable to sea level rise than those with “high land.” While much of the literature on climate change and the Pacific focuses on the possibility of islands, particularly low-lying atolls, becoming submerged by the ocean, in fact it is likely that areas – and countries – will become uninhabitable long before they are submerged. The impacts of climate change are far-reaching.

The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change holds that small island states are at great risk from the projected impacts of climate change, particularly in terms of rising sea levels:

“Sea-level rise poses by far the greatest threat to small island states relative to other countries. Although the severity of the threat will vary from island to island, it is projected that beach erosion and coastal land loss, inundation, flooding, and salinization of coastal aquifers and soils will be widespread. Moreover, protection costs for settlements, critical infrastructure, and economic activities that are at risk from sea-level rise will be burdensome for many small island states. Similarly, tourism—the leading revenue earner in many states—is projected to suffer severe disruptions as a consequence of adverse impacts expected to accompany sea-level rise.”

But while sea level rise is most often discussed, threats to water supplies, acidification, and extreme weather carry significant risks that will prompt many to migrate long before their islands sink.

Increasing saltwater intrusion into fresh water sources, coupled with population pressures and inadequate sanitation systems, mean that lack of water may well be the most immediate effect of climate change in small Pacific Island states – and the principal factor forcing people to leave their communities. Less than half of Kiribati’s population presently has access to safe water. Ominously, in 2011, Tuvalu faced such severe water shortages that it was forced to import water from New Zealand and Australia.

Rising water temperatures and acidification of the sea (as a result of absorption of carbon dioxide by sea water) also negatively impact coral reefs, threatening both the physical and economic foundations of atoll countries like Tuvalu and Kiribati. Coral bleaching – which occurs when coral reefs turn whiter because organisms living with the corals lose their pigment or die – results from stress placed on corals such as rapid sea temperature changes. The loss of coral reefs not only affects coral-related livelihoods but leaves many islands unprotected to bear the brunt of ocean waves and storms.

Sudden-onset disasters are increasing in number and are becoming more intense. Hurricane-strength cyclones have become more frequent in the southwest Pacific over the last thirty years. Moreover, the total population affected by disasters has increased and economic losses have been dramatic. In March 2015, Cyclone Pam, a devastating category 5 cyclone displaced more than half of Vanuatu’s 250,000 people and destroyed 95 percent of the country’s food crops. The impact of natural hazards on the population of the Pacific, as in other regions, is intensified by increasing urbanization, infrastructure development, deforestation, and the destruction of mangrove swamps that serve as buffers from the destructive effects of high winds and flooding.

Although the populations of the countries which make up this region (with the exception of Papua New Guinea) are very small by international standards, in fact rapid population growth has been a serious challenge in some of the islands, such as Kiribati and Tuvalu – two of the islands most vulnerable to the effects of climate change. In Kiribati, half of the population lives on the main island of Tarawa and there is virtually no capacity for long-term internal migration because of the lack of high ground. Similarly about half of Tuvalu’s population lives on Funafuti and the lack of high ground impedes possibilities for further settlement.

Climate Change and Movement of People

Climate change means that people will have to move because the areas where they live are no longer habitable. Warming temperatures, sea level rise, and the increasing frequency and intensity of sudden-onset weather events all affect the habitats where people live. In some cases, drought and desertification have led people to move to other parts of their country or, as in the Horn of Africa, to cross borders into neighboring countries. In the Arctic, warming temperatures have increased coastal erosion, led to melting permafrost, and have changed patterns of fish and animal migration – all of which affect the sustainability of indigenous communities in the region. In still other cases, governments have declared “no build zones,” usually following a sudden-onset disaster, where communities are forced – and often assisted – to move elsewhere.

But it’s not just climate change which is making communities vulnerable. The choices that people make about where to live play a major role. Today one-half of the world’s population lives within sixty kilometers of the coastline, making these communities particularly susceptible to the effects of intensifying storms and other weather-related events. Global patterns of urbanization mean that people are living on ever-more marginal land. Moreover, poorer people are more likely to live in the most marginal areas, which are also the most vulnerable to natural hazards. As the U.K. government’s influential Foresight report notes, too often, people are moving from communities experiencing environmental stress to places where they face even greater environmental risk. While climate change is clearly increasing pressures on people to move, in most cases it is difficult to say that climate change is the only driver of migration.

When their habitats become uninhabitable because of the effects of climate change, people will move. Meeting in Cancun in 2010, the Conference of Parties to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change agreed, for the first time, that mobility is a form of adaptation to climate change and invited states to undertake “measures to enhance understanding, coordination and cooperation with regard to climate change induced displacement, migration and planned relocation, where appropriate, at national, regional and international levels.”

In other words, some people will leave – indeed, some already are – because they see the writing on the wall and choose to migrate before they are forced to do so. Others will be forced to leave their communities due to changes in habitat brought about by either sudden- or slow-onset disasters, such as floods or drought. Still others will depend on their governments to relocate them when the time comes. While a body of research is evolving on climate change-induced migration and displacement, much less is known about this third type of mobility: relocations.

Migration

People are likely to migrate, long before their habitats become completely uninhabitable, and it is likely that they will follow established migration routes. For example, outward migration of Pacific Islanders from Polynesian countries, such as Samoa and Tonga, to New Zealand has been aided in part by favorable legislation enacted for this purpose, as well as through the granting of temporary work visas.

It is also possible that rather than migrating as individuals, people may move as part of a community. There have already been historic precedents for this such as movements from Barnaba, Gilbert Islands (now Kiribati) to Rabi, Fiji after World War II; from Vaitupu, Ellis Islands (now Tuvalu), to Kioa, Fiji; and Gilbertese to Western Province, Solomon Islands. These relocations, all of which occurred between then-British colonies, had mixed results. There is also a long history of significant migration to Pacific Rim countries and to former colonial powers (Australia, New Zealand, the United States, the United Kingdom, and France). Currently, an estimated 57 percent of Samoans and 46 percent of Tongans live outside their countries.

Kiribati has promoted a policy of migration with dignity through which Kiribati citizens can receive vocational training or higher education in order to be able to compete in the global labor marketplace. This program has focused on seafarers who already contribute 15 percent of the country’s GDP through remittances, and on training nurses in Australia who can then look for jobs outside the country as needed. Rather than relocation en masse, which is seen as a top-down effort that strips people of their agency, planned migration over time may provide opportunities for people facing the prospects of uninhabitable communities to find solutions.

Displacement

Sudden-onset disasters have displaced large numbers of people in the Pacific. Tsunamis in 2007 in the Solomon Islands and in 2009 in Samoa displaced 4.6 percent and 2.5 percent of the respective countries’ populations, consequently posing major challenges for economic and social development. If similar percentages were calculated vis-à-vis the populations of large countries, the resulting absolute numbers would be staggering. In the U.S., for example, it would mean between six and 14 million people displaced – figures that dwarf the 1.5 million displaced by Hurricane Katrina.

Most of those who are displaced by sudden-onset disasters will remain within the borders of their countries. But what happens if people are forced to leave their countries because of a disaster or environmental degradation or the effects of climate change? Under present international law, there is no special provision to admit those leaving their countries for these reasons; rather they are dealt with through normal immigration channels. So, if someone from a Pacific Island country has to leave his or her country because of sea-level rise or if a cyclone forces people to cross an international border, governments are under no obligation to treat them differently than any other economic migrant asking for admission. Although sometimes the term “climate change refugee” is used in the media to depict these people, they are not refugees under international law. The term “refugee” is well-established in international law – and applies only to those fleeing persecution on the basis of five clearly specified criteria – race, religion, nationality, political opinion, or membership in a social group. It does not apply to those forced to leave their countries because of disasters or environmental degradation or the effects of climate change. Last summer a New Zealand court explicitly rejected a request for refugee status by a citizen of Tuvalu arguing that he could no longer remain in his country because of the effects of climate change. The Nansen Initiative was set up to explore this gap in international law – specifically to build consensus on a protection agenda addressing the needs of people displaced across borders in the context of disasters or the effects of climate change.

Planned Relocations

Finally, in some cases, people will need to be relocated from areas where they can no longer survive because of the effects of climate change. Indeed, the governments of Fiji and the Solomon Islands have taken the initiative to start planning for the relocation of some vulnerable communities. In other cases, notably the Carteret Islands in Papua New Guinea, resettlement of the population to the larger island of Bougainville has already begun in response to the negative effects of rising sea levels, particularly coastal erosion and the effects of higher tides on agricultural land. Despite efforts to protect against these effects by planting mangrove forests and constructing seawalls, Carteret Islanders state that more than 50 percent of their land has eroded into the sea since 1994 and saltwater has flooded agricultural land, causing persistent food shortages. The resettlement program is intended to relocate 50 percent of the islands’ population (some 1,300 individuals) by 2020. But this has been a difficult process. Aside from finding funding for the program and logistical issues, integration with local host communities and the re-establishment of livelihoods are some of the key challenges in the resettlement process. In fact, many of those initially resettled have returned to the Carterets because of difficulties in securing access to land and relations with host communities.

Relocation of communities is an extremely difficult and costly undertaking and the overall record of planned relocations in other contexts – such as development projects – is not a positive one. Too often relocations are carried out with inadequate planning, funding and community engagement. There is also resistance to even thinking about relocation as a climate change adaptation strategy because to do so is to give up the struggle to mitigate the impacts of climate change. The Brookings Institution, together with Georgetown University and the United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees, is presently developing guidance for states about how to undertake relocations in a way that upholds the rights of all of those affected.

Climate change will have far-reaching consequences for the people of this planet, but particularly for those living in the Pacific. Measures to adapt to the effects of climate change – sea-level rise, acidification of oceans, threats to water supplies, and increasing sudden-onset disasters – will have to include mobility. Of course, we need to do everything we can to stop the emissions that are making parts of the world uninhabitable. At the same time, we need to think ahead about how to adapt to changing conditions, including how to plan for migration, displacement, and relocations made necessary by the effects of climate change. Climate change adaptation funds should be used not only to build dykes and replant mangrove forests, but just as importantly to plan for the movement of people.