Why COP21 Matters to Asia

At the start of this month, numerous heads of state – including Indonesia’s President Joko Widodo, China’s Xi Jinping, and India’s Narendra Mod - will be in Paris, France for the 21st meeting of the Conference of Parties (COP) for United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCC). It is expected to be a historic gathering of world leaders prepared to, finally, tackle head-on what many see as the greatest challenge of our generation. The timing could not be any better, with El Nino showing Asia quite clearly what is to come if global climate action does not happen this year.

Much has changed since the last major climate treaty, back in 1997 when the Kyoto Protocol was adopted. That treaty exempted developing countries from any commitment to reduce emissions, meaning that only Japan, Australia, and New Zealand were included in the Asia-Pacific region. At the time it made sense, as the vast majority of carbon emissions came from developed countries, and Asia, despite its size, played a comparatively small role. Today, the continent is responsible for the highest proportion of greenhouse gas emissions, with China, India, and Indonesia all in the global top five for 2015, and any successful agreement in Paris will have to include plans to reduce the continent’s fast growing carbon footprint.

“Paris is going to be a big test for us all,” said Marco Lambertini, Director General of WWF International. “A test of whether or not we are to commit and demonstrate that the global awareness of climate change turns to action.”

It is not only reducing emissions. Many countries in the region are also on the front lines, facing the first adverse impacts of climate change. Pacific island countries (PIC) are already seeing rising sea levels intrude their already limited freshwater supplies. The Philippines is being battered by stronger typhoons, while drought has ravaged Indonesia, resulting in this year’s devastating fires. In the coming years, low-lying, densely populated Bangladesh could experience massive displacement and, potentially, a flood of climate migrants as a result of rising sea levels. In fact, according to a study by the Notre Dame University, numerous South and Southeast Asian nations are among the most vulnerable and least prepared to deal with climate change. Thus, both strong mitigation and adaptation plans are key to the future of nearly every country in Asia and the Pacific Ocean.

Curbing Growing Emissions

The stated global goal of the Paris Talks has been to get an agreement that would limit global warming to 2 degrees Celsius, a number that many Scientists still say is too large – they are calling for 1.5 degrees as the limit. Unfortunately, the world is currently on the path towards going over both figures. One major reason; Asia’s rapid growth since the turn of the Millennium. China overtook the United States as the world’s top carbon emitter in 2007, and, since then, due to growing demand for coal and gas, its emissions are now far ahead of the U.S. India’s rapid growth has propelled it past Japan and Germany into fifth spot, while Indonesia’s devastating fires alone emitted more carbon dioxide than all of Germany.

There is hope, because, unlike in previous COP meetings, most Asian countries are bringing real commitments and plans to the table. That is because the world agreed that each country would come to Paris having submitted what is called an Intended National Determined Contributions (INDC) – essentially, a nationally mitigation plan that covers the period for 2020 to 2030, for which the Paris talks hope to achieve an international agreement. These voluntary commitments have been coming in at a steady pace throughout the year.

Of the, 173 commitments submitted, there is one from every country in the Asia-Pacific except Nepal, North Korea, East Timor, Uzbekistan, and Malaysia. They are a major step forward from the Kyoto Protocol when most of Asia had no obligations at all. For example, China’s INDC commits the country to lower CO2 emissions per GDP unit by 60-65 percent from 2005 levels, and to increase national forest stock volume by around 4.5 billion cubic meters.

“The chemistry of COP21 is that the Chinese have become major change agents, rather than holding back,” said Carl Pope, a special advisor to Michael Bloomberg, currently the UN Secretary General’s envoy for climate and cities.

It’s not just China. India’s ambitious plans calls for 40 percent of electricity to come from non-fossil fuel source by 2030. And even more ambitious plans are coming from smaller countries, especially PICs. These countries emit so little that their plans are less important for what they will achieve, than they are for the spotlight they shine on larger countries to do more.

All this bodes well for Paris, but it’s not enough. Analysis looking at all the INDCs calculated that, if every country meets its stated commitments, the world would still see 2.7 degrees of warming – far too high.

“The current commitments are not yet sufficient to meet what the world needs. Countries must accelerate their efforts after the Paris summit in order to stave off climate change,” said Jennifer Morgan, Global Director of the Climate Program at the World Resources Institute (WRI), in a statement. In fact, according to WRI, we need to double greenhouse gas reductions globally on top of what’s in all the INDCs to get to 2 degrees.

“We want to see more commitment for immediate action,” said Samantha Smith, with the World Wildlife Federation’s Global Climate and Energy Program. “Action before 2020, when emissions need to peak and start declining.”

That will be a major discussion point in Paris – what more countries can commit to get us to the 2 degrees goal, and how we can “ratchet up” emissions reductions over time, and how to do this equitably so that each country is doing their fair share.

“We know INDCs won’t be enough,” said Smith. “We want to see more commitment for immediate action, action before 2020, when emissions need to peak and start declining.”

One reason for optimism is the fact that some parts of Asia are beginning to shift to clean energy, notably India and China, which have been making huge strides in renewables energies, including potentially reducing their future consumption of coal. According to Pope, though, the rest of Asia is lagging behind, and that needs to change if we are to meet global climate goals.

“Renewables in the rest of Asia cost twice as much as in India or China,” said Pope, “we need very badly for those other countries to catch up.”

Some are making progress. Thailand has been called the hottest emerging market for solar energy, and Japan has more electric car charging stations than gas stations. But these are isolated cases, with other countries in the region – Pakistan, Indonesia, and Myanmar, for example – having made little progress on green energy. There needs to be more coordination across the continent to ensure that climate goals are met.

Climate Finance

Key to pushing for green growth in the rest of Asia will be designing a global finance mechanism that will not only help vulnerable countries adapt, but also allow for more rapid deployment, and financing, of renewable energies in developing countries. Even with Asia’s recent growth, it still lags far behind the U.S. and Europe in terms of historical emissions. There is strong sentiment that countries that industrialized using fossil fuels must put in sufficient funds to help emerging countries both adapt to climate impacts, and move technologically towards low-carbon growth.

“The case is crystal clear,” said Lawrence Torcello, an ethics scholar at the Rochester Institute of Technology, whose open letter to the Paris conference leaders calling for equity has 1800 academic signatories. “Wealthy nations have a very clear moral duty to provide as much aid to these countries.”

Key to this is India, which wants $2.5 trillion in global assistance to meet the goals in its INDC. Many other developing nations have made their INDCs contingent on receiving sufficient funding from developed countries.

“There is a lot of poverty in India and they’re being put in a position where they are asked not to develop in a similar way to the rest of the world, including China,” said Torcello “If we are actually going to address climate change, as a practical point, industrialized countries have to provide as much help as they possibly can.”

That was why, in 2010, at the UNFCC meeting in Cancun, Mexico, industrialized countries agreed to set up a “Green Climate Fund“ that would, annually, provide $100 billion to developing countries to meet the challenges of adapting, and expanding renewable energies. One of the key discussions in Paris will be ensuring that the fund reaches its goal, and what the ratio of dispersements for adaptation and mitigation are, and what mechanism can be put in place to ensure the money is spent properly.

“Wealthier, developed countries are coming forward with finance – but the finance they have committed, especially finance for adaptation, is not enough. We need a concrete plan so they can fulfill this commitment they made,” said Smith.

That missing piece – funding for adaptation, which, thus far, has been far behind that designated for mitigation, accounting for 16 percent of all finance committed thus far, according to estimates from Oxfam. For vulnerable nations in the Asia-Pacific region, such as Bangladesh, the Philippines, or PICs, this is especially worrisome. The cost of protecting their long coastlines, near which millions live, many in poverty, could be astronomical.

“These countries are not going around with a begging bowl,” said Lies Craeynest with Oxfam International. “[They are] already paying a lot of money for adaptation, and are much closer to paying their fair share than developed countries. But the cost of this is so overwhelming.”

For example, Bangladesh already spends $1 billion a year, an astounding seven per cent of its annual government budget, on climate change adaptation, according to the United Nations Environmental Program, and that’s not enough. The World Bank estimated it will need to spend $5.7 billion annually on adaptation alone by 2050, all to counter a problem that Bangladeshis, who are among the bottom of per-capita carbon emissions in Asia, didn’t cause.

“Less financially developed countries will continue to need technical and financial support from both the public and private sectors to meet the significant challenges they face,” said Josh Sawislak, global director of resilience for AECOM, a global, engineering and environmental design firms, and formally a member of the White House Council on Environmental Quality.

This will likely be the most contentious issue in Paris, and one that could unravel the talks. There is also a third category: loss and damage. This would compensate those who cannot adapt, such as PIC, or suffer due to extreme weather such as the victims of Typhoon Haiyan in the Philippines last year. Developing countries want to include this in the talks, while developed countries are hesitant to agree on a mechanism that could put them on the hook for billions.

Challenges, Yet Optimism

Some believe that what is most important is not a plan to get to 2 degrees, or 1.5 degrees, now, or one that is 100 percent equitable and fair, but a plan that finally brings the whole world together to tackle climate change. Then market forces and pure momentum will push countries to overachieve and future talks can ensure better equity. This is what we are seeing in the United States, where carbon dioxide emissions have been steadily dropping, or in parts of Europe where clean energy is on par with fossil fuels and already reducing emissions. Paris can jump-start the world.

“All countries want an agreement, and want climate change addressed,” said Smith. This is important. In the past, when certain countries, such as the United States or Australia, were opposed to climate action, this time, there is a consensus that action need to be taken.

Paris will be focused on determining how to move forward in the most equitable, achievable way. And all eyes will be on Asia, because the future of global climate lies in what development paths this region takes going forward. And it is Asia that will also suffer if not enough is done, fast.