Thailand: The Price of ‘Happiness’

When, on May 22, 2014, General Prayut Chan-o-cha announced, “I have decided to seize power,” few observers realized that the sound of his fist banging on the negotiation table was meant to signal the beginning of an era of bliss for the Land of Smiles. To get his message across, shortly after the coup the junta released a song, “Returning Happiness to the People,” written within a creative hour by none other than Prayut himself. A look at the lyrics is revealing.

In the very first line, Prayut predicted that the “day the nation, the king, and the mass of people live without danger” was not too far away. And indeed, the semblance of stability has returned to the kingdom after years of street politics and violent clashes between supporters of democracy and conservative royalists. Instead of letting the people work out for themselves the course of their country – a progressive course toward representative government that has historically been rather fraught in other parts of the world – the military decided to take the steering wheel, convinced that it had the only viable roadmap to a better future.

Of course, the ticket for that happy ride was not free of charge. To “live without danger,” the nation, the king, and the people had to pay a price.

First, look more closely at the nation and its international setting: By taking over the burden of government, the junta had to alienate long-term allies in the West who nowadays prefer to deal with elected governments that represent the democratic will of the people. The United States cut back military-to-military ties and called for a true reconciliation involving all parties. The European Union suspended free trade talks until a legitimate government could return to the negotiation table. It also threatened a blanket ban on fish imports, citing human rights violations in the industry.

Moreover, the European Parliament extended an invitation to former Prime Minister Yingluck Shinawatra to report on her country’s political developments. Predictably, that move outraged the junta, whose aim it is to erase the legacy of the Shinawatra family from Thai politics. Yingluck’s brother Thaksin enjoyed unstoppable electoral success, turning him into a threat to Thailand’s entrenched military-royalist complex. His shadow still falls over Thai politics, ten years after his own tenure as prime minister was terminated by the generals in an earlier coup.

In an act of defiance of Western pressure, Thailand’s generals moved closer to rulers who understand that unaccountable elites know best. The deepening of defense and diplomatic ties with China was complemented by the extradition of dozens of Muslim Uyghur refugees from Thailand to China, in spite of the likelihood that the Uyghurs would face persecution there. The decision seemed part of Thailand’s hedging strategy – of not relying solely on strained ties with the West, but rather seeking to strengthen its international bargaining power. Ironically it was this attempt to make the nation stronger that exacted the highest price, that of human life. In August 2015, a bomb blast at a popular shrine in downtown Bangkok – apparently an act of revenge by Muslim sympathizers of the Uyghurs – killed 20 people and injured 125. This was the largest number of casualties in a single act of violence in Thailand since the junta had taken over with the declared aim of preventing such losses.

The attempts of the generals to strengthen the nation may continue to cost the country dearly in terms of international punitive measures, lost economic opportunities, and retaliation for abuses.

The Monarchy

As with stability, the safety of the monarchy has come at a price. While King Bhumibol was struggling to stay alive in his hospital bed at Bangkok’s Siriraj Hospital, powerful sections of the junta seemed to throw their support behind his controversial son, Crown Prince Vajiralongkorn. Authorities went vigorously after the family of his third wife, Srirasmi, whom Vajiralongkorn divorced to live with his fourth consort, rumored to be a former Thai Airways flight attendant. Then, in late 2015, several men known to have been close confidants of the prince died in custody after seemingly falling from favor. Before assuming power, Vajiralongkorn apparently wanted to get his house in order, and the military was willing to help.

By managing the looming royal succession in this way, the generals may have had good intentions, trying to let the next king “live without danger,” as Prayut’s lyrics suggested. However, the new monarchy they have helped create is bound to be different, and probably more volatile, than the record-breaking reign of King Bhumibol. The latter’s resilience in the face of changing times was built on the eternal promise of material reward and social esteem for his supporters. They were drawing on his sacredness to advance their personal aims while simultaneously reaffirming and bolstering the king’s status for decades.

Loyalty to the more interventionist and vengeful Prince Vajiralongkorn, on the other hand, will be more risky given his tendency to persecute even those closest to him. As long as devotees feel the need to fear punitive measures instead of rewards of money and status, King Vajiralongkorn’s eventual reign will be less stable than his father’s. Of course, the crown prince may change his leadership style once in power, but no one can look into the future and his imminent accession adds uncertainty to a country already rife with them. The succession may be manageable. The same cannot be guaranteed for the future of the monarchy.

Public Safety

While Prayut’s third concern, the safety of the people, may be laudable, his measures to protect the nation and king ironically have put many people in danger. Not only are there potential domestic consequences for pursuing a risky foreign policy or setting up a messy royal succession, but there’s little safety to be found for those who are not willing to sacrifice the freedom to choose their leaders as the price of Prayut’s policies. Thousands of people who do not share his opinions have been threatened, chased out of the country, or imprisoned as the generals pursued dissidents in order to create a peaceful silence. Prayuth might call this silence “harmony”; other observers would say that he is simply pressing down a lid on a boiling pot that is sure to explode. Exactly whose wellbeing is the junta concerned for? Surely not that of those who disagree with the generals and their allies.

But an anniversary is a time to celebrate, not to nit-pick. After all, you can't make an omelet without breaking some eggs.

Moreover, good things come to those who wait, as Prayut implied in another line of his Happiness Song: “We will do what we promised. We are asking for a little more time.” Thai people’s patience, a presumed character trait of Buddhists, has certainly been put to the test during the two years of military dictatorship. While the junta was convinced that it was following the right roadmap, the time the navigators had announced they needed to reach the final destination – Thai-style democracy – turned out to be based on a miscalculation. The process of drafting a new constitution under which new elections were supposed to be held was much more time-consuming than many had hoped, but exactly as slow as many critics of the junta had expected. These doubters did not accept the argument that, even with a roadmap in hand, traffic jams and differences of opinion over exactly which route to take are bound to occur. They thought that the generals were deliberately taking Thailand on a detour in order to sit behind the steering wheel for longer than many deemed necessary or appropriate. In their view, Prayut simply enjoyed the ride and the control, particularly at a time when Thailand was heading towards the unbeaten path of royal succession.

However, if the junta is to be believed, the destination is now in clear sight. After a first draft constitution failed to win lawmakers’ approval in mid-2015, a new version of Thailand’s basic law has been cobbled together and is scheduled to be put to a public referendum this coming August. The question now is whether the Thai people will choose to end the ride then by accepting the constitution or if they simply refuse to get off and demand that the junta take them to a destination of their own choosing, or even hand them back the car keys.

In that case, Prayut would be in trouble, as a failed referendum would likely disqualify him personally from guiding the country further. But the military itself would not necessarily suffer. A rejection of the charter would most likely mean more time in power, only with a new commander at the helm. And maybe this is what the generals wanted all along: more time.

Heads We Win, Tails You Lose

In this light, the military needs to be congratulated on the second anniversary of its rule. It has won either way. If the constitution is rejected, it will retain its direct control of the country, provided it manages to stifle growing dissent and keep Thaksin’s supporters and progressives in check. In the likely scenario that a majority of Thais accept the draft, the generals will still continue to hold considerable sway over the political process. The document has been called a Myanmar-light constitution, alluding to stipulations that guarantee the military a high degree of influence over that neighboring country’s political process. Thailand’s new constitution would allow for an unelected “outsider” to become prime minister; for a senate consisting entirely of members handpicked by the military, with six of them drawn from the security forces; a transitional period of up to five years during which the military would retain veto powers; and electoral rules that are likely to produce weak coalition governments. Whether the constitution is accepted or rejected, Thailand will remain an autocracy if the junta gets its way.

From this perspective, the announcement Prayut made in his Happiness Song that the soldiers “offer to guard and protect you with our hearts” was really an offer the Thais couldn’t refuse. And why should they, given that Prayut also promised in another line that “the land will be good soon”? But again, time is relative and “soon” could mean anything in a country whose core belief system rests on the idea of impermanence. In economic terms at least, the land is not good just yet.

Given the political uncertainties that hover over Thailand like a swarm of drones ready to strike – royal succession, a public referendum, the spontaneous political moves of an unpredictable ruling clique – Thailand remains a country investors and consumers have reason to be wary about. Optimistic projections by the IMF put growth forecasts at 3 percent in 2016 and at 3.2 percent next year, following a meagre 2.8 percent in 2015. The World Bank’s forecast of 2 percent growth for 2016 may be much closer to reality.

In attempting to “make the land good soon” by stabilizing the country politically, the junta had hoped that economic strength would return naturally as a byproduct. But various factors give reason to expect that “soon” means more than a little while in this case.

Some of these factors are admittedly beyond the control of the junta. A severe drought is putting the vital agricultural sector under pressure, with consequences not just for Thailand’s exports but also for consumption as farm incomes – already in decline due to low commodity prices – are falling even further. Moreover, the economic slowdown in China, Thailand’s largest trading partner, and volatile global financial markets are not exactly conducive to spurring growth in the export-dependent kingdom. Declining birth rates, a shrinking workforce, increasing competition from neighboring countries, and low productivity are all long-term problems that the junta cannot immediately solve – although the country could have done without a further dumbing-down of school curricula by way of dull nationalist educational programs prescribed by the coup-makers.

However, the junta did not help offset these trends by dragging its feet on the implementation of Thaksin-style stimuli and public investment programs. The generals based many of their plans to bring back growth on several megaprojects, among them a long-distance railway running from the border of Laos down to the Gulf of Thailand. The project was supposed to be realized in cooperation with China, which has an interest in connecting its southern hinterland with the ASEAN region and improving access to the sea lanes there via a pan-Asian railway linking Yunnan to Singapore via Laos, Thailand, and Malaysia. However, the deal with China failed due to differences of opinion on costs, shareholdings, and interest rates on Chinese loans. Consequently, the junta had to scale back its plans. It decided to implement only part of the original project, now fully financed by Thailand while still drawing on Chinese technology. Given the fact that the project was originally used to commemorate 40 years of diplomatic relations between Thailand and China, the failure to reach an agreement also cast shadows on Thailand’s aforementioned strategy of strengthening its ties with Beijing.

But all's not lost for the Thai economy. Foreign visitors are still not shunning the land of smiling dictators. Tourism has become Thailand’s biggest source of growth. The failed railway endeavor notwithstanding, in the field of international travel Thai-Chinese relations are at an all-time high. China has now become the kingdom’s biggest source of tourists. In 2015, every fourth foreign visitor to Thailand came from mainland China. The death of Chinese tourists in the bomb attack related to the deportation of the Uyghur refugees was poised to become a public relations disaster, but apparently has been without long-term effects. At least the hospitality industry still profits from Thailand’s teflon effect, referring to the country’s economic persistence in times of crisis.

And so, two years after assuming responsibility for the course Thailand is taking, Prayut’s lyrics still resonate. The junta can continue to argue that it is trying to help the nation, king and people to “live without danger,” while “offering” protection to the Thai people, who only have to wait for “a little more time” as happiness will return to Thailand “soon.”

Read between the lines, however, and it is clear that happiness comes at a cost. The Thai people must decide if they are willing to pay the junta’s bill.