The Philippines Wants to Befriend All the Great Powers

The world’s great powers all consider the Philippines to be a valuable chess piece. To the United States, it’s a longstanding security ally in the Pacific’s “first island chain” whose generals are loyal and where troops can be stationed. To China, it’s a haven of untapped resources, with friendly oligarchs ready to help you extract them. To Russia, it’s a loyal customer when you’re selling military helicopters, even when nobody else is willing to do business.

Philippine President Rodrigo Duterte has maintained a close alliance with the United States while, at the same time, making public overtures to Chinese leader Xi Jinping and Russia’s Vladimir Putin. Apparently, even Russia’s invasion of Ukraine is not enough to keep him from remaining friendly with everyone.

Last month, the Philippines pledged to open itself to U.S. troops should Russian aggression escalate into war with the United States. Philippine Ambassador to the United States Jose Manuel Romualdez cited the 1951 Mutual Defense Treaty, which binds the U.S. and Philippines to come to the aid of each other should one country be attacked.

Duterte, earlier in his presidency, announced he would cancel the Visiting Forces Treaty with the United States, which allows U.S. troops to conduct military exercises with Philippine troops on the country’s territory. That announcement led to fears he would go further and scrap the Mutual Defense Treaty altogether. However, his decision was broadly unpopular among generals in the Philippine Army, many of whom are loyal to the United States and skeptical of China and Russia, and Duterte canceled his cancelation before it ever took effect.

The U.S. reportedly remains confident it will retain Philippine support should Russian aggression spread outside of Ukraine and provoke a U.S. military response. But even as much of the Western world cuts Russia off, the Philippines has not followed suit.

The Philippines is going ahead with its $249 million purchase of 17 military transport helicopters from Russia, which was signed last year and partially paid for prior to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. The first batch of helicopters is set to be delivered in 2024. When Defense Secretary Delfin Lorenzana was asked if Russia’s aggression would affect the purchase, he said, “Only time will tell.”

The Philippines voted to condemn Russia’s invasion at the United Nations, but Duterte has thus far only expressed concern over the war rather than condemning it himself.

Within the Philippines, Russian Ambassador to Manila Marat Pavlov has embarked on a cursed goodwill media tour to try and drum up support for continued ties between the two countries.

Pavlov last month told a forum in Manila that military cooperation between Russia and the Philippines, such as the helicopter sale, showed “how we can diversify our partnership and how reliable [the Russian Federation is].”

He also lauded Duterte’s so-called “neutral” stance on the conflict, saying the president had taken a “very balanced, very wise position.”

Days earlier, an op-ed by Pavlov was published in the Philippine Star, where it remained online for less than a day before being removed. Pavlov accused the West of targeting Russia with an “unprecedented information war” and offered a slate of garden-variety Russian talking points, such as calling the war a “special military operation” rather than a war and falsely accusing Ukraine of genocide in the eastern Donbas region.

The swift backlash to the op-ed among the Philippine public indicated the archipelago is not exactly a Putin fan club, but the fact it was published at all by a major daily newspaper shows that the country remains fertile ground for Russian disinformation.

The pro-Russian information blitzkrieg has also swamped social media, as accounts promoting former senator Ferdinand “Bongbong” Marcos Jr., and Duterte’s daughter, former Davao mayor Sara Duterte, have taken to posting memes praising Putin and mocking U.S. President Joe Biden. Similar accounts have also falsely stated that Vice President Leni Robredo, who is challenging Marcos in the upcoming presidential election, would allow the U.S. to establish military bases in the Philippines should she be elected.

Marcos, like Duterte, has not condemned Russia, although he called for Russia to “respect Ukraine’s freedom and its citizens’ democratic way of life” after earlier facing criticism for saying he did not need to take a stand on the conflict, since the Philippines is not directly involved. Duterte spent six years currying favor from all sides and Marcos, should he become president, appears a safe bet to try the same strategy, wars be damned.