Victoria Clement

There’s a new Berdimuhamedov in charge in Turkmenistan. On March 12, precisely a month after President Gurbanguly Berdimuhamedov called for an early presidential election and declined to run in it himself, Turkmen citizens went to the polls and considered a list of nine names. The president’s 40-year-old son, Serdar, was the only prominent figure on the list and on March 15 Turkmen authorities declared him the victor with 72.97 percent of the vote. Turkmen election officials claimed that 97 percent of registered voters cast their ballots.

There never was a question of whether Serdar would “win.” As Victoria Clement explains in the following interview with The Diplomat’s Managing Editor Catherine Putz, “there is no real political space in Turkmenistan.” Clement, the owner of Central Asian Insights, a consulting firm in northern Virginia, has more than 25 years’ experience developing and presenting educational materials to non-profit, academic, diplomatic, and U.S. Department of Defense communities. Her 2018 book, “Learning to Become Turkmen: Literacy, Language, and Power, 1914-2014,” was the first book in English to be based on research in Turkmenistan’s archives. Clement brings her unique and in-depth knowledge of one of the world’s most opaque states to bear in trying to assess what’s next as Turkmenistan’s carefully choreographed political arena opens a new chapter.

On February 11, Turkmen President Gurbanguly Berdimuhamedov called for an early election to be held on March 12. Turkmenistan wasn’t due for a presidential election until 2024. Why do you think Berdimuhamedov called for the election two years early?

President Berdimuhamedov called for elections on the 15th anniversary of his becoming president of Turkmenistan. There may have been symbolism in choosing that day. But why did he not wait for the next election? No one is certain, but there is speculation that he could be ill. The president is diabetic and had disappeared from public life for several weeks in summer 2019, leading to rumors that he had died or been incapacitated. He may feel physically or mentally weak.

Another catalyst could be the protests-turned-riots seen in Kazakhstan in January, which led to former President Nursultan Nazarbayev’s being stripped of the powers he retained even after stepping down from the presidency on March 19, 2019. Nazarbayev had seen to it that Kassym-Jomart Tokayev assumed the presidency, but Nazarbayev also maintained certain powers such as the chair of the National Security Council. Across Kazakhstan, the public made clear, in part by shouting “Shal ket!” (Old man, get out!) and tearing down statues of Nazarbayev, that they were tired of the way the country was being run.

Berdimuhamedov does not want to wait until he has worn out his welcome. Even though he seems to be trying to implement the first phase of the Nazarbayev model – placing his successor on the throne while preserving some power for himself – Kazakhstani displays of discontent may have spooked him. The de-Nazarbayevification now taking place in Kazakhstan is likely Berdimuhamedov’s greatest fear. He is clearly looking to manage the succession and wants to stay as much in control as he can. By making space, as he said when announcing the early election, for “the younger generation” and allowing Serdar to take up his role now, the president is attempting to reduce the risk to his legacy, his family, and his person.

For readers less familiar with Turkmenistan's politics, can you outline what the political space is like? What limits are there on speech and political activity?

There is no real political space in Turkmenistan. Everything is choreographed to create a veneer of a functioning system in which people have a vote and officials have agency. In fact, few in Turkmenistan have political agency. Turkmenistan was physically cut off from the rest of the globe by the pandemic – despite official denial that COVID-19 exists in the country. A limited number of flights come or go. Some Turkmen citizens have been stuck in other countries for more than two years. For those inside, there is no free press, no freedom of speech or assembly, and little opportunity to protest or even raise a voice. Gurbanguly Berdimuhamedov, like his predecessor Saparmurat Niyazov, has ruled the country by fiat. There is no reason to think that his son will do differently. Niyazov called himself “Turkmenbashy” (leader of the Turkmen); Berdimuhamedov calls himself “Arkadag” (patron or protector). Serdar may depict himself similarly, choosing a comparable title.

Shortly after calling for the election, Berdimuhamedov’s son Serdar was nominated by the party that has long nominated Berdimuhamedov (and Niyazov before him). No one was surprised. Can you explain some of Serdar’s trajectory toward power over the last few years?

In addition to heading the Turkmen Alabay Dog Association and being president of the International Ahal Teke Horse Breeding Association, his father’s pet projects, Serdar has held a variety of political positions in recent years. He is known by the appellation “the son of the nation” and has cut through the country’s bureaucracy without resistance.

His political roles have seen him rise rapidly from the local to the national to the pinnacle of the leadership. In November 2016, Serdar first took a seat as a regional representative in the Majlis or parliament. From 2016 to 2017 he was chairman of the Department of International Information of the Turkmen Ministry of Foreign Affairs. A year later, he took on a national role as deputy minister of foreign affairs. In January 2019, Serdar was shifted to the position of deputy governor of Ahal Province, the region of most Turkmen elite or the Ahal Teke people. Six months later, he was advanced to governor (hakim) of Ahal province. In February 2021, Serdar became the Cabinet of Ministers’ deputy chairman for innovation and digitization, a position created for him. He was concurrently appointed to the State Security Council and assumed the chairmanship of the Supreme Control Chamber of Turkmenistan. In July 2021, Serdar stepped down from his positions on the State Security Council and Supreme Control Chamber and was assigned the economics and finance portfolio.

I use the passive voice here to indicate that Serdar has been awarded, assigned, or appointed to various positions rather than earning them, because his father is pulling the strings and making all the decisions here. It is not a matter of Serdar successfully seeking positions, but rather his father handing them to him.

Berdimuhamedov came to power after the death-in-office of his predecessor, as did Uzbekistan’s President Shavkat Mirziyoyev; presidents have cycled through Kyrgyzstan mostly via revolution and Kazakhstan’s managed non-dynastic transition faltered dramatically in January. Did Berdimuhamedov take any lessons from those events? How did Turkmen more broadly view those transitions?

I believe that the Berdimuhamedovs did take lessons from the experiences of neighboring leaders, and not only former Soviet countries. Turkmen well remember Tajikistan’s civil war and the “color revolutions” in Kyrgyzstan, Georgia, and Ukraine, but also the Arab Spring of 2011. And the leadership has kept the public afraid that such chaotic situations could befall their society should they step out of line.

As a result of the fear instilled in them of potential chaos on one hand and the very real strength of Turkmenistan’s security services on the other, one thing I hear from Turkmen is that they want peace. More than anything they want to avoid upheaval and any semblance of violence. To the degree that they can access information about the world outside of Turkmenistan, they see disturbances through the lens of a people who have maintained peacefulness at all costs. There is a prevailing willingness to sacrifice a great many freedoms and comforts to maintain calm. In addition to that attitude, there is a strong and pervasive security system operating throughout the country. There is a great disincentive against any form of protest or even activism.

This is creating a society that is simmering with fear, anxiety, and frustration. Despite President Berdiumuhamedow’s efforts to manage succession a la the first stages of Nazarbayev’s transition, he may have unwittingly sown the seeds of de-Berdimuhamedovization.

Do you think Serdar’s presidency will differ from his father’s? What do we know about his leadership style and experiences?

The fact that Turkmenistan has a new president is unlikely to alter everyday life in Turkmenistan in any measurable way.

We know that Serdar speaks English as well as Russian and Turkmen, having studied in Moscow and Geneva. This global experience should be an indication of a more worldly outlook. But Serdar has shown no proclivity toward liberalism or reform. He has given every indication of being comfortable with his father’s rule and methods.

People voted in this election because they were compelled to do so. Election officials visited Turkmen in their homes to ensure they were registered. On March 12, bosses and supervisors saw to it that each employee made it to a polling station. Even the retired were monitored to make certain that they performed their patriotic duty of participating in an election, the outcome of which was preordained.

What are the biggest challenges Turkmenistan faces today?

There is a paucity of quality social services available in the country, with medicine and education suffering severely. Inflation is high and there is a shortage of food in the state subsidized food shops. Analysts estimate that 2-3 million citizens have left the country over the past 10 years due to a lack of employment and opportunity. The country is rich in natural resources, but the people are poor by any measure.

In Turkmenistan statistics are treated as national secrets. There is no independent polling entity, freely available information for or about the people, and therefore no data by which one can measure societal norms. Soon Ashgabat will conduct a census. We are still waiting for the results from the census taken 10 years ago.

Perhaps the greatest challenge that Turkmenistan faces today is suffering from the misconception that Serdar must do everything by himself. Yet, Turkmenistan is not without human capital. There are thoughtful people in the country that want to see change. Serdar could choose to align himself with open-minded individuals and put a new foot forward.