Why Ukraine Matters to Australia

The new Australian Labor Party government has taken office in a time of greater global difficulties compared to 2013, when it last held power. Australia is facing immense strategic competition from China in its immediate region of the Pacific, persistent domestic instability within its primary security partner, the United States, and a war in Ukraine that has global consequences.

Although far from Australia’s shores, Russia’s invasion of Ukraine is deeply important for two reasons. First, as a middle power of limited capabilities, Australia cannot flourish in a world where might is right. Second, and related to the first point, there are lessons that China will draw from Russia’s invasion and Ukraine’s resistance that will inform its own regional designs, especially Beijing’s desire to annex Taiwan.

Australia may not be at war, but it should understand the invasion of Ukraine as a pre-war crisis. It is a shifting of tectonic plates that pushes the world closer to a more widespread conflict. It should be seen as part of the current democratic decline globally, and relatedly the ascendancy of authoritarianism. Russia may have been bogged down in its attempts to overturn the post-1945 international order, but it may also not suffer any major long-term consequences for this attempt, and that may inspire others to try such tactics.

The previous Australian government took the situation in Ukraine seriously. By the time it left office it had contributed $200 million in both military and humanitarian aid, making Australia the largest non-NATO contributor to Ukraine’s defense. Australia has also resettled around 3,000 Ukrainian refugees. This is a number that could be greatly expanded, although most Ukrainians have expressed a strong desire to return to Ukraine and may wish to remain close to their country.

For the new Australian government, there looks to be a clear understanding that its response to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has local implications. Support for Ukraine is not simply charity to a far-off country with limited interest for Australia but is rather the best way to make a tangible contribution to deter authoritarianism. Prime Minister Anthony Albanese attended the NATO summit in Spain at the end of June, in an indication that he was committed to working with NATO to further the defense of Ukraine. At the time of writing, plans were being made for Albanese to travel to Ukraine to meet with President Volodymyr Zelenskyy.

Australia’s support for Ukraine will obviously be with one eye on China. How Beijing interprets the situation in Ukraine is Australia’s most pressing concern. There has been speculation that, as Russia’s military has faced unexpected resistance and heavy losses, this would make China think twice about the costs of invading Taiwan.

This is a possibility, but it overlooks how President Xi Jinping has made “reunifying” Taiwan with mainland China a major goal of his tenure as top leader. Instead it is more likely that China is studying what is happening in Ukraine as a way to avoid Russia’s mistakes. The challenges that Russia has had with its plans for Ukraine may in fact make Xi believe that he needs to ensure that the Chinese military’s plans are fail-proof. It may inspire a greater investment in the project to take Taiwan, as the Communist Party’s nationalistic fervor cannot accept any other outcome.

Australia has bound itself to the United States’ strategic ambiguity when it comes to the defense of Taiwan. This is smart policy. Although Australia is heavily economically invested in East Asia, it doesn’t have the capabilities to be out in front on this issue. It does, however, have the ability to strongly signal its intent to protect the rules and norms that guard the peace. Ukraine is an opportunity to send a strong signal to the Indo-Pacific region that Canberra is willing to make key investments in deterrence and resistance.

Australia is not, and should not see itself, as an inconsequential player in Ukraine. It has the resources to make a serious contribution to Ukraine’s war efforts, and it has the need to demonstrate its moral authority to the world. Australia’s global standing has suffered due to both its recalcitrance on climate change and its following of the United States into the folly of invading Iraq. Ukraine offers the opportunity to make some repairs and project intent for the future. How the new Australian government contributes to Ukraine will be the test of Australia’s seriousness to be a capable power in the 21st century.