In Search of a Shared Roadmap for Taiwan

When Nancy Pelosi went to Taiwan in early August, the speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives’ two key objectives were to demonstrate U.S. support for the island and to make the U.S. commitment clear to China. Another delegation of U.S. members of Congress followed soon after Pelosi’s return, and it is clear that legislators are no longer shying away from making their personal support for Taipei clear.

What is less apparent, though, is Washington’s vision for working together with key allies in the region to support Taiwan moving forward, as well as a roadmap for ensuring Taiwan’s economic resilience and competitiveness in the future.

Ahead of Pelosi’s visit, the White House tried to distance itself from the speaker’s travel plans and privately pressed her not to go at a time when relations between Washington and Beijing have been particularly tense. The speaker also did not consult with close U.S. allies in the region including Japan ahead of her visit, which could change the dynamics of relations between Washington and its closest partners in the Indo-Pacific moving forward.

Until the Pelosi visit, the momentum toward building coordinated support for Taiwan by the international community had been clear. Following their summit meeting in April 2021, Japan’s prime minister at the time Suga Yoshihide and U.S. President Joe Biden had signed off on a joint statement that noted the need for bilateral support for stability in the Taiwan Strait, marking the first time since 1969 that Taiwan had been mentioned in a joint public statement. Since then, the G-7, the European Union, and NATO, as well as U.S. allies including Australia, have made a point of voicing their collective support for Taiwan.

Indeed, Taiwan had come to exemplify the Biden administration’s rallying cry for working closely with like-minded countries in defense of regional stability in the Indo-Pacific and the rule of law. Having emerged from a military dictatorship into a prosperous democracy, Taiwan’s success as a technology powerhouse and the increased pressure it faces from China have led the United States to champion Taipei's continued growth with support from governments in the region.

The congressional visits, however, have put a damper on regional coordination in support of Taiwan. Pelosi allegedly did not consult with any regional governments in advance to discuss the potential blowback and ramifications of her visit to Taiwan. Yet since her visit, Taiwan has been confronted with live-fire military exercises that suggest not only Beijing’s preparations for a possible blockade, but China’s plans to control Taiwan’s airspace as well as its waters. Such moves not only threaten Taiwan, but also the countries around it, including Japan.

If members of Congress are serious about their commitment to Taiwan and the need to stave off Chinese aggression, then it is imperative that they cooperate with their counterparts, as Washington had done in drawing greater attention to the island over the past two years. A fully-fledged military response by China to cripple Taiwan militarily as well as economically through blockades, sanctions, and direct attacks will require a continuous and steady response not just from Washington, but from a consortium of U.S. allies with a shared interest in ensuring Taiwan’s continued stability. Such coordination cannot be effective without prior consultation that lays out the immediate goals and the risks entailed.

At the same time, a shared vision for Taiwan’s economic future to ensure its resilience and stability is also needed. While Taiwan’s strategic and political significance are without doubt, the fact remains that its indisputable dominance in the semiconductor industry has furthered its importance to the global economy. At the same time, the trend to boost domestic chip manufacturing capabilities, including in the United States, will ultimately hamper Taiwan’s own growth prospects. Indeed, while the Taiwanese economy had surged amid growing demand for chips during the pandemic, its GDP for the latter half of this year is already expected to slow down due to a combination of inflationary pressure and weakened demand. Heightened geopolitical risks coupled with the trend toward vertical integration of technologies will add further pressure on Taiwan at a time when it is confronting greater security risks more broadly.

China’s pressure on Taiwan is expected to continue in the longer term, and the United States alone cannot offer the sustained support that Taipei will need. As such, Washington must ensure that there is a concerted, global effort to support Taipei not just militarily but economically as well. While there may be more members of the U.S. Congress eager to demonstrate their public support by visiting Taiwan in coming months, Washington needs to develop a longer-term strategy to ensure the status quo in cross-strait relations together with its allies in the region.