Japan’s New Gambit to Deter China: Intermediate-Range Missiles

The Japanese Ministry of Defense (MoD) has decided to begin mass production of an extended-range version of the domestically developed Type 12 Surface-to-Ship Missile (SSM) in fiscal year 2023 in a bid to bolster its defense against China’s increasing military capabilities, according to the ministry’s budget request released on August 31.

The ministry has not disclosed how many of those upgraded cruise missiles it plans to deploy. But the Yomiuri Shimbun, Japan’s biggest daily, reported on August 21 that the ministry is considering the deployment of more than 1,000 missiles mainly around the nation’s Nansei Islands – a chain of islets stretching southwest from Kyushu toward Taiwan.

Japan’s missile buildup solidifies perceptions that the nation is already entering into an endless arms race with China. Tokyo is concerned about Beijing’s growing assertiveness near the disputed Senkaku/Diaoyu Islands in the East China Sea as well as heightened tensions between China and Taiwan. Meanwhile, China believes that Japan is using the “China threat” narrative as a pretext for a significant departure from Japan’s exclusively defense-oriented policy in the post-war period, as defined by the nation’s pacifist constitution.

The ground-based Type 12 system has been in service with the Japan Ground Self-Defense Force (JGSDF) since fiscal year 2014. Also known as SSM-1 KAI, it is the successor to the Type 88 SSM-1 system. The new version will extend the Type 12’s range from an estimated 200 km to 1,000 km.

The MoD plans to use the improved version of this Type 12 SSM as a stand-off missile that can be operated from various platforms, enabling its launch from land, ships and aircraft. It started the development process for extending the missile’s range in fiscal year 2021 with an allocation of 33.5 billion yen ($245 million). In addition to this ground-launched type, the MoD also started the development of the ship-launched and air-launched variants in fiscal year 2022 by allocating 39.3 billion yen ($287 million).

The MoD plans to bring forward the deployment of advanced ground-launched version of the missiles to fiscal year 2024, two years earlier than the originally scheduled fiscal year 2026, according to the Yomiuri report.

It should be noted that while China possesses over 2,000 intermediate-range (1,000 to 5,500 km) missiles that could strike Japan – 300 ground-based cruise missiles and 1,900 ballistic missiles – Japan currently does not have any intermediate-range missiles, let alone a single ballistic missile.

The U.S. Forces Japan (USFJ) also currently does not have any intermediate-range missiles because the U.S. had been prohibited from possessing such missiles under the Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces (INF) Treaty signed with the former Soviet Union in 1987. However, the Trump administration withdrew from the treaty in August 2019. Now, with an eye toward China, the United States is in a rush to develop missiles in that range.

More than a few domestic and foreign media have reported that Japan is considering the deployment of long-range cruise missiles, quoting the Yomiuri report. This is inaccurate because, militarily speaking, the improved version of the Type 12 SSM, with a range of 1,000 km, is an intermediate-range cruise missile at best.

China has shown mixed reactions over Japan’s plans to deploy more longer-ranged missiles.

Although the Chinese government often accuses Japan of a military buildup by saying “Japan should remember its past wrongs and should not go toward remilitarization,” China’s foreign and defense ministries had not responded to the latest news report as of writing.

Instead, Chinese President Xi Jinping sent a message to Japanese Prime Minister Kishida Fumio wishing for his recovery from COVID-19 on August 22, a day after the Yomiuri report came out.

“China wants to improve relations with Japan ahead of the 50th anniversary of the normalization of bilateral ties on September 29,” an official at a Chinese think tank told The Diplomat, adding that a lot of friendship festivals and events are expected to be held in Beijing.

However, the Global Times, a famously hawkish Chinese state-owned newspaper, published an article criticizing Japan’s missile build-up on August 22.

“As soon as the Yomiuri Shimbun exclusive report came out, it was immediately reprinted by major international media,” the Global Times said. “Some analysts have linked this news to the Japanese right-wing hype that ‘if there is something in Taiwan, there is something in Japan.’”

It added, “The Japanese government's usual method has been exposed, which is, seeking to upgrade its armaments by hyping ‘security threats.’”

“Whether the missile is carried on upcoming new ‘Aegis-equipped’ ships, or more than a thousand long-range cruise missiles are deployed on the southwestern islands, Japan uses it for an excuse to obtain ‘counterattack capabilities’ to enhance deterrence,” the Global Times said.

Japan views the situation very differently. It keeps expressing concerns about China's increasing military capabilities.

“For over 30 years, China has been growing its defense budget at a high level and rapidly improving its military power in qualitative and quantitative terms with focus on nuclear, missile, naval and air forces, which is raising strong concerns,” the MoD said in its latest defense white paper, released on July 22.

The paper accused China of “relentlessly” conducting “coercive” and “unilateral” actions intended to alter the status quo around the Senkaku/Diaoyu Islands, which are administered by Japan but claimed by China.

China’s threats gained added momentum after the Chinese military for the first time launched five ballistic missiles into Japan’s Exclusive Economic Zone (EEZ) near Okinawa Prefecture on August 4 during a massive military drill aimed at Taiwan.

Satoshi Morimoto, a former Japanese defense minister, told The Diplomat earlier in 2022 that Japan is the only country in the world to face the three most serious military threats from China, Russia, and North Korea.

In any case, Japan will continue focusing on how to bolster its deterrence capabilities, especially as the government plans to update its National Security Strategy (NSS), the National Defense Program Guidelines, and the Medium-Term Defense Program by the end of 2022.