2023: What to Expect
From lingering challenges (the Ukraine war, most notably) to scheduled summits and elections, here’s what to watch for in the new year.
Last year was one of political change, with elections across the Indo-Pacific (some competitive, some not). In 2022, Australia, China, Kazakhstan, Malaysia, Nepal, the Philippines, South Korea, and Turkmenistan, all elected or appointed top leaders – some new, some re-upped incumbents. There are some additional polls in 2023, most notably in Thailand and Pakistan, but many more countries will see their current leaders – whether new to office or simply grappling with new challenges – try to find their footing.
And it won’t be easy to do, amid fears of a global economic downturn as the crises of 2022 continue to haunt the new year. The war sparked by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine rages on, disrupting supply chains and dragging down economies around the globe. The potential for conflict in the Taiwan Strait and the Korean Peninsula looms large, too, as tensions worsened in both regions last year.
For the most part, the COVID-19 pandemic has slipped off the radar of regional governments and publics (with China as the big exception). But the economic turmoil it caused continues to linger, as countries from Sri Lanka to Laos grapple with financial ruin.
Finally, the new year will almost certainly bring new natural disasters, as climate change continues to take a toll, as well as new terrorist attacks, especially given disturbing trends in Afghanistan. No one knows where or when these events will happen, but if 2022 taught us anything, it’s to expect the unexpected.
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SubscribeThe Authors
Ankit Panda is editor-at-large at The Diplomat and the Stanton Senior Fellow in the Nuclear Policy Program at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace.
Yuki Tatsumi is director of the Japan Program at the Stimson Center in Washington, D.C.
Mitch Shin is chief Koreas correspondent for The Diplomat.
Sudha Ramachandran is South Asia editor at The Diplomat.
Umair Jamal is a correspondent for The Diplomat, based in Lahore, Pakistan.
Catherine Putz is managing editor of The Diplomat.
Sebastian Strangio is Southeast Asia Editor at The Diplomat.
Dr. Prashanth Parameswaran is a senior columnist at The Diplomat and a fellow at the Wilson Center’s Asia Program.
Patricia O’Brien is a faculty member in Asian Studies at Georgetown University and in the Department of Pacific Affairs, Australian National University, and is Adjunct Faculty in the Pacific Partners Initiative at the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS), Washington, D.C.