2024: What to Expect
Welcome to the new year, and to our annual primer on what to expect in the Asia-Pacific.
2024 promises to be a tumultuous year, not the least because of a host of elections across the region, from presidential contests in Taiwan, Indonesia, Sri Lanka, and the United States, to general elections in Bangladesh, India, Pakistan, and the Solomon Islands, and legislative polls in South Korea. Japan and Singapore could join that list, if their ruling parties decide to roll the dice on snap elections. These votes will serve to recast the political class across Asia, with possibly significant consequences.
Amid the churning in Asia’s political pools, there are worrying economic tides too. China’s economy is in dire need of a boost but foreign companies remain wary of Beijing; meanwhile, Southeast Asia’s “scamdemic” is truly a global problem. Afghanistan remains mired in poverty and hunger as the international community debates how to handle the Taliban regime, and Pakistan’s economy is teetering between recovery and crisis.
And there are a number of festering conflicts across Asia, from Myanmar, where a coordinated resistance offensive took shape in the latter part of 2023, to the South China Sea, where the Philippines, most prominently, is facing off against China. At the same time, crises in the Middle East and Europe continue to sap American attention and alter wider geopolitical trends. If 2023 was a rollercoaster, 2024 promises to be a continuation of that wild ride, from Central Asia all the way to the Pacific.
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SubscribeThe Authors
Ankit Panda is editor-at-large at The Diplomat and the Stanton Senior Fellow in the Nuclear Policy Program at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace.
Yuki Tatsumi is a senior fellow and co-director of the East Asia Program and director of the Japan Program at the Stimson Center.
Troy Stangarone is senior director and fellow at the Korea Economic Institute of America (KEI). The views expressed here are the author’s alone.
Sudha Ramachandran is South Asia editor at The Diplomat.
Umair Jamal is a correspondent for The Diplomat, based in Lahore, Pakistan.
Dr. Shanthie Mariet D’Souza is founder and president of Mantraya; visiting faculty at the Naval War College, Goa; and non-resident scholar, Middle East Institute, Washington D.C.
Catherine Putz is the managing editor of The Diplomat.
Sebastian Strangio is Southeast Asia editor at The Diplomat.
Dr. Prashanth Parameswaran is a senior columnist at The Diplomat, a fellow at the Wilson Center’s Asia Program, and the founder of the weekly ASEAN Wonk newsletter.
Dr. Patricia O’Brien is a historian, author, analyst and commentator on Australia and Oceania. She is a faculty member in Asian Studies at Georgetown University and in the Department of Pacific Affairs, Australian National University.