China’s Early Signals to Donald Trump

When Donald Trump was sworn in as president of the United States on January 20, 2025, there was an unusual guest in Washington, D.C.: China’s vice president, Han Zheng. His presence was a dramatic upgrade from China’s usual representative, the Chinese ambassador to the United States.

Trump originally extended an invite to China’s top leader, Xi Jinping, to the astonishment of U.S. analysts – no foreign leader, much less the leader of a major geopolitical rival, had ever attended a U.S. president’s inauguration. “This is an example of President Trump creating an open dialogue with leaders of countries that are not just allies but our adversaries and our competitors too,” Trump’s spokeswoman Karoline Leavitt told Fox News when asked about the invitation to Xi.

For China, the invitation represented an opportunity to try to get off on the right foot with the new administration. In his meetings with Vice President J.D. Vance and tech mogul-turned-Trump adviser Elon Musk, Han continued the positive signals Beijing has been trying to send to the incoming president for months.

Jimmy Carter – who oversaw the normalization of China-U.S. relations during his single term as U.S. president – passed away on December 29, 2024. In a poignant coincidence, Carter’s death provided an opportunity for China’s government to use one of its favorite signalling techniques: extolling a past era in China-U.S. relations to comment on the present.

In a message to outgoing President Joe Biden, Xi expressed “deep condolences” and “deep regret” over Carter’s passing. The Chinese leader described Carter as a “promoter and decision-maker in the establishment of China-U.S. diplomatic relations,” adding that the former U.S. president “made important contributions to advancing the development of China-U.S. relations as well as the friendly exchanges and cooperation between the two countries.”

Xi then expressed China’s willingness to work with the United States “to focus on the fundamental interests of the two peoples and meet the common expectations of the international community to advance China-U.S. relations along the right track of sound, stable and sustainable development.”

China’s ambassador to the U.S., Xie Feng, wrote a similar message in the book of condolences hosted at the U.S. State Department during the mourning period for Carter.  State-owned media outlet CGTN cited Xie as writing: “To this day, the people of the two countries and the world are still enjoying the dividend of peace and development brought by the establishment of diplomatic relations between China and the United States.”

The message was clear: U.S. presidents would do well to follow Carter’s example in improving China-U.S. relations. Coming less than a month ahead of Trump’s inauguration, that signal was being sent largely to the incoming administration, even if the message was nominally addressed to Biden.

China’s Foreign Ministry commented more directly on the state of China-U.S. relations, summarizing its views of the Biden administration – and again sending a message to Trump. “During the past four years, China-U.S. relations have gone through ups and downs, but have remained stable on the whole,” spokesperson Guo Jiakun told reporters at a daily press conference on January 14. He cited the growth of “dialogue and cooperation” under Biden, but added: “At the same time, China stood firm by its principles, safeguarded its sovereignty, security, and development interests, and responded to the US’s wrong actions with resolute countermeasures.”

Guo then repeated comments made by Xi at his final meeting with Biden on the sidelines of the APEC summit in Peru last year. Guo summarized Xi’s recommendations of “inspirations” to be drawn from China-U.S. relations since 2021:

[T]o have a correct strategic perception, match words with actions, treat each other as equals, not to challenge red lines and paramount principles, conduct more dialogue and cooperation, respond to the expectations of the people, and step forward to shoulder the responsibilities of major countries.

None of these are new, exactly, although Xi did expand his definition of China’s “red lines” to include not only the “Taiwan question” and respect for China’s “path and system” and “democracy and human rights” (i.e. no regime change efforts) but also China’s “right to development.” Xi is essentially saying that Beijing considers the efforts, via sanctions and export controls, to block its access to cutting-edge technology as an existential threat.

In case this messaging was too subtle, Xi spoke directly with Trump on January 17, just days before the presidential inauguration. Attempting to equate his own efforts to Trump’s “America First” mantra, Xi told the incoming U.S. president that “the two great nations of China and the United States are pursuing their respective dreams, and are both committed to delivering a better life to their people.” He added, “China and the United States can become partners and friends, contribute to each other’s success, and advance shared prosperity for the good of the two countries and the whole world.”

It’s not clear whether the Trump administration is heeding these signals from Beijing, much less whether they intend to alter the U.S. government’s approach in response. Trump himself has often spoken fondly of Xi and told reporters he wants to visit China within his first 100 days in office. (For context, Biden didn’t visit China at all during his term.)

While Trump himself may think favorably of Xi, the early signals from his administration – including the “America First Trade Policy” issued on the day he took office – would see Washington continue and even advance policies that China considers an existential threat to its development. That includes tightening export controls on advanced technologies, placing or raising tariffs on Chinese exports, and even potentially revoking China’s “permanent normal trade relations” status. A new bill was introduced in both houses of Congress on January 23 seeking to revoke China’s trade status.

Marco Rubio, Trump’s secretary of state, told the Senate during his confirmation hearing that China was the “biggest threat” to the United States, and described the rival country has having “lied, cheated, hacked, and stolen their way to global superpower status, at our expense.”

Notably, China’s Foreign Ministry – usually not shy about seizing chances to rebut hawkish rhetoric in Washington – declined to comment on Rubio’s remarks. Instead, the next day Guo Jiakun, the ministry’s spokesperson, fielded a softball question about the enthusiastic response on Chinese social media to a U.S. children’s choir performing a song at the Temple of Heaven in Beijing. That itself was yet another signal to Trump of China’s hope to stabilize and even grow relations – including a willingness to look the other way as figures in the new administration talk tough on China.

The real test will come when the Trump administration actually crosses one of China’s expanding “red lines.”