Receding Waters, Rising Challenges: Navigating the Caspian Sea’s Geopolitical Moment
Due to global turmoil, the importance of the Middle Corridor has grown exponentially. However, the Caspian Sea continues to pose a significant obstacle to the realization of the corridor’s economic potential.
On December 25, 2024, Azerbaijan Airlines flight 8432 crashed, killing 38 people. Preliminary reports suggest the plane was shot at by Russian air defenses, forcing it to deviate from its planned flight path from Baku to Grozny. The aircraft limped across the Caspian Sea and crashed short of a runway near Aktau, Kazakhstan.
Coincidentally, the flight’s point of departure, Baku, and the city close to its crash site, Aktau, are the two main ports of the Trans-Caspian International Route (TITR), also known as the Middle Corridor. This trade route connects China to Europe through Kazakhstan, Azerbaijan, Georgia, and Turkiye.
For Europe, trade along this corridor has become increasingly important to gain access to Chinese goods, as well as Central Asian energy resources and critical raw materials, while bypassing sanction-stricken Russia and Iran. The EU has invested significantly in Middle Corridor trade, with an Investment Forum in January 2024 attracting 10 billion euros for the development of sustainable transport connectivity in Central Asia.
Azerbaijan and Kazakhstan in particular have hoped to attract the long-term investment needed for the expansion of the logistical facilities needed to increase trade volumes. China has already poured significant investment into both the ports of Aktau and Baku. Thanks to infrastructure improvements, the volume of cargo transported along the Middle Corridor rose by 63 percent in the first 11 months of 2024 to 4.1 million tons. Kazakhstan hopes to further expand the capacity of the Caspian ports of Aktau and Kuryk to 30 million tons by 2030 – a sevenfold increase from current levels.
Despite these rosy figures, significant challenges remain. The Caspian Sea, located at the heart of the Middle Corridor, still is a major obstacle to improving regional connectivity. Unresolved legal disputes, regional security issues, and steadily declining water levels could all inhibit this trade route from realizing its economic potential.
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Douwe van der Meer is a researcher focusing on energy, climate, security and water issues in Central Asia, the South Caucasus and Turkiye. He previously worked as a research assistant for the Clingendael Institute and the Istanbul Policy Center (IPC) and is a member of the South Caucasus Water Academics Network (SWAN).
Julian Postulart specializes in research on the South Caucasus and Central Asia, with a background in regional geopolitics, memory and identity politics, and military and security affairs. He is the editor-in-chief at Novastan English and is currently interning at the Netherlands Defense Academy (NLDA), where he examines the role of cultural heritage in conflict.