Indo-Pacific Islands Need to Be Central to US Regional Strategy

As efforts to end the conflict in Ukraine evolve rapidly, the world is waiting to see how the significant shift in U.S. engagement with Russia could shape Washington’s engagement with the world more broadly. The new developments in Europe will test expectations that the United States will shift its foreign policy focus to the Indo-Pacific region in light of the systemic challenge posed by China as the dominant global force. The potential implications for Taiwan are being watched particularly closely in the Indo-Pacific.

While Taiwan could ultimately prove to be the litmus test for U.S. security commitment in the region, Washington’s strategic interests do not begin and end with deterring a potential Taiwan contingency. Beijing is positioned to play the long game to strengthen its regional influence in a competition that goes far beyond Taiwan. What’s more, its military strength is backed by China’s efforts to increase dependence on Chinese technology as well as financing.

Amid the contest for influence, the United State should not only focus on the vulnerabilities of island nations but also seek opportunities to pursue U.S. interests in these small states. Bear in mind that the Indo-Pacific is a region of islands – Southeast Asia alone has over 20,000 islands, many of which are uninhabited and isolated. The race to claim islands large and small to ultimately become military footholds is only intensifying.

Sri Lanka is a case in point for those seeking to understand the geopolitical competition at play in Indo-Pacific island states. A heavy debt burden ultimately led Sri Lanka to grant China de facto ownership of the Chinese-built Hambantota port. To be sure, some analysts have argued that China has not been able to recoup the investments it has made into the project, which has been described as a “white elephant.” But in reality, the Hambantota port is more than a capital investment. By signing a 99-year lease to China Merchants Port company, the Sri Lankan government has effectively relinquished sovereignty over the port. Access now requires approval from the Chinese authorities. What’s more, even as China declares that its intentions for the port are solely for commercial purposes, Chinese maritime surveillance continues to rise, particularly in the Indian Ocean.

Equally troubling is the fact that Sri Lankan dependence on Chinese capital remains strong even after the Hambantota port debacle. In the capital, construction of the Colombo Port City mega-project has ground to a halt as a result of financing woes. But as the city looks for partners to complete the vision of constructing a maritime hub, the prospect of China returning as financier remains a potential scenario – despite the security as much as economic risks that may pose to the island nation.

As the United States looks to Asia as its key region of interest, any newly reinvigorated effort to focus on the Indo-Pacific should involve a comprehensive plan that can outmaneuver China’s long-term strategic plans. The defense of geostrategically critical islands – big and small – will need to be part of that roadmap. Ensuring the security of ports and maritime infrastructure is critical to such efforts.

Another key task will be to secure the safety of underwater sea cables. To cite just one example, the Asia-America Gateway, which connects Southeast Asia to the U.S. mainland, runs an estimated 12,000 miles, with Singapore serving as its hub. But even as the infrastructure’s critical value grows, it remains vulnerable to attacks.

Examples of Chinese-flagged cargo ships deliberately cutting and damaging undersea cables have become all too common. The latest aggressions include Chinese-crewed vessels flying the flag of Pacific Island nations cutting cables linking Taiwan to global networks. What has not been highlighted in recent headlines, however, is how to secure the cables.

The Pacific Island nations – geographically isolated and often neglected – have increasingly become the frontline to expand China’s maritime foothold. U.S. efforts to bolster the defense of the underwater sea cables can also be an opportunity to invest in the telecommunications infrastructure of the Pacific Islands in particular and ensure interoperability of networks by boosting regional connectivity.

Whether the U.S. shift in defining relations with Russia can give greater leeway for Washington to commit to the Indo-Pacific remains to be seen. What is clear, though, is that Beijing will continue to boost its presence in the region and seek to make countries across the region more dependent on China. Island nations remain particularly vulnerable to Chinese efforts to increase dependency. Challenging China’s strategy will require the United States to think beyond the immediate military challenges of potential threats to Taiwan, and focus on securing its longer-term interests in the region more broadly.