Letter From the Editors

Looking at the world on the cusp of March 2025, it seems like a major inflection point, where the existing rules and norms are in flux and the world is on the brink of great change. But as this month’s issue of The Diplomat Magazine reminds us, every recent headline has its roots in long-term, deep-seated trendlines. Whether the China-U.S. trade war, Central Asia’s fraught relationship with Russia, or Pakistan’s stable instability, it’s worth keeping the broader context in mind when tracking contemporary events.

In our cover story, Raj Bhala diagnoses the motivation behind the ongoing trade wars, particularly between China and the United States: aggressive neo-mercantilism. Bhala, the Brenneisen Distinguished Professor at the University of Kansas’ School of Law, notes that current trends have much in common with the traditional mercantilism of imperialist Europe, but today’s version goes well beyond that paradigm. Economics and trade are seen as part of the overarching realm of national security, where trade with the enemy is an existential threat. As a result, Bhala writes, aggressive neo-mercantilism “seeks to de-link through an admixture of economic, political, and military policies. Fragmentation is the deliberate outcome of policies that, collectively, are designed to cope with security threats.”

The former Soviet states of Central Asia and Russia have been mutually shaped by decades of labor migration, but these long-running ties have begun to fray. As Tajikistan-born freelance journalist Sher Khashimov writes, what once seemed like a fundamental, eternal reality for many Central Asians – heading to Russia for work – has begun to change. Russia’s annexation of Crimea in 2014 was a major turning point only clarified by the 2022 full-scale invasion of Ukraine. The COVID-19 pandemic further illustrated weaknesses in the economic relationships between Central Asia and Russia, and last year’s Crocus City Hall attack marked another pivot point.

It’s now been one year since Shehbaz Sharif took office as Pakistan’s prime minister after a controversial general election. Farzana Shaikh, an associate fellow for the Asia-Pacific Programme at Chatham House, provides an overview of how Pakistan has fared under the Sharif government – and it’s not a pretty picture. From mounting security woes to continued political contestation – primarily with the PTI of Sharif’s predecessor, the ousted Imran Khan – stability remains a distant dream. As Shaikh notes, this problem isn’t unique to Sharif. Indeed, most of Pakistan’s politics can be summed up in the old French adage, “plus ça change, plus c’est la même chose.”

We hope you enjoy these stories and the many more in the following pages.