Pakistan’s Tough Balancing Act Between the US and China

Pakistan’s policymakers have long walked a tightrope in balancing the country’s relationships with the two global powers, China and the United States.

This balancing act has not been easy for Islamabad for several reasons. The two countries have had different priorities and expectations vis-à-vis their relationships with Pakistan. Washington and Beijing’s diverging interests in Pakistan have not only put pressure on Islamabad’s foreign policy choices but also made it difficult for Pakistan to draw full benefit from its relations with either country.

Pakistan has been an important player in China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) with the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) serving as a flagship project. Beijing has made massive investments in Pakistan’s energy and infrastructure development in the last decade as part of its expansion of BRI-related projects globally.

With investments from other sources drying up for Pakistan in recent years, China was forced to help the country with billions of dollars in credits and rollovers of pending capital to keep Pakistan’s economy afloat. Beijing views Pakistan as a strategic partner that can provide it access to the Arabian Sea. China has emerged as a major stakeholder in Pakistan, with financial and political leverage often overshadowing U.S. influence in the country.

Washington, meanwhile, has historically seen Pakistan through the lens of regional security. For instance, the United States has long relied on Pakistan to support its strategy in combating extremist groups in Afghanistan and elsewhere in the region. Washington has hardly made any major direct investments in Pakistan but allowed Islamabad to attain benefits from other international lenders. In a nutshell, Pakistan-U.S. ties have traditionally been dominated by security institutions from both sides, operating in the shadows, as part of a broader cooperation.

In recent years, the U.S. has grown increasingly weary of Pakistan’s deepening cooperation with China, particularly in areas of defense and technology that it sees as a challenge to its own regional interests. Moreover, the U.S. has often criticized Pakistan and China’s cooperation under CPEC for lacking transparency. The situation has put Pakistan in a difficult position as it tries to keep both countries happy.

Pakistan tried to strategically reset its relationship with the United States under then-U.S. President Joe Biden. Islamabad reportedly attempted to provide greater transparency with respect to CPEC and its overall cooperation with China. While these actions from Pakistan may have softened some criticism from the U.S. regarding human rights conditions and democracy, they did little to alter the transactional nature of the relationship.

In the end, Pakistan’s efforts proved largely futile. Bilateral relations cooled to the extent that no senior U.S. leader, like the secretary of state, visited Pakistan during Biden’s term.

The description of Pakistan-U.S. relations has not changed much during the first months of President Donald Trump’s second term in office. It is not a surprise that the first major instance of cooperation between Pakistan and the U.S. under Trump was in the form of the arrest of a high-profile militant, reflecting the centrality of security cooperation in the relationship.

Meanwhile, Pakistan’s relationship with Beijing has been under stress lately, primarily due to Islamabad’s inability to manage relations effectively amid complications arising from U.S. pressures.

A major reason is Pakistan’s inability to meet Beijing’s demands for stronger counterterrorism cooperation. Beijing has recently pushed for greater security measures and asked Pakistan to allow the use of Chinese security companies to protect CPEC projects and workers. These demands come amid a rise in attacks against Chinese workers and projects in Pakistan.

Pakistan, for its part, has been reluctant to entertain any discussion about the use of Chinese security forces on its soil. Any such prospect would certainly provoke Washington’s anger. From Pakistan’s perspective, this is all the more concerning given how Trump frequently threatens both allies and adversaries with sanctions and punitive measures for undermining U.S. interests.

During his recent visit to China, Pakistan’s Present Asif Ali Zardari is likely to have taken up the issue of China’s request for deeper counterterrorism cooperation, highlighting the country’s limits vis-à-vis pressure from the U.S. and the change of leadership in Washington.

Frustrated, China has held back on fully offering Pakistan the benefits that usually come to countries with which Beijing has strategic partnerships. It is important to note that fresh investments from China into CPEC projects have dried up, with pressure mounting on Islamabad to plug security loopholes threatening Beijing’s investments in Pakistan.

In this triangular relationship, it seems that none of the three countries is satisfied with each other.

In 2023, a pair of classified memos leaked to the Washington Post warned Pakistani policymakers against jeopardizing ties with China in order to appease the U.S. In one of the memos, then-Minister of State for Foreign Affairs Hina Rabbani Khar argued that Pakistan could “no longer try to maintain a middle ground between China and the United States.”

Titled “Pakistan’s Difficult Choices,” the memo warned policymakers against giving the appearance of appeasing the West at the cost of undermining ties with China. Khar cautioned that the drive to preserve Pakistan’s partnership with the U.S. would ultimately sacrifice the full benefits of the country’s “real strategic partnership with China.”

With Pakistan facing increasing economic and security challenges, it appears unlikely that the country will successfully achieve a breakthrough in its relations with either China or the United States. Unless Pakistan opts to make significant revisions to its foreign policy choices regarding both countries, it will likely miss out on the fruits of either relationship.

The act of balancing between China and the U.S. may have helped the country in maintaining ties, but it has not truly enabled Pakistan to fully realize the potential of these partnerships.