The Rise of Subnational Diplomacy: Leaning Into the Power of US States

The United States’ image abroad is rapidly evolving. For some Americans, the change is greatly welcomed amid growing fears about the world taking advantage of U.S. largesse over the decades. Others, however, have been alarmed by the seismic shift in the U.S. stance regarding its relations with friends and foes alike. The change in how the United States sees itself and its projection of power is leading to U.S. states taking on a bigger role in defining their own interests and goals that may run counter to Washington’s policies.

Canada is a case in point in the rise of subnational diplomacy in the United States. At first, President Donald Trump’s comments about the possibility of incorporating Canada into the United States were seen to be in jest. As that message continued and sharpened further, the White House’s talk about its northern neighbor becoming the “51st state” ceased to be humorous. Instead, it drove an unprecedented wedge between Ottawa and Washington, as Canadians became increasingly alarmed about U.S. intentions.

The Canadians were so troubled by Trump’s persistent claims to their country that the latest national election was seen as a referendum on the future of Canada’s relations with the United States. Voters sought a leader who would be able to stand up to Trump while maintaining strong ties between the two nations. The rise of Mark Carney as the new Canadian prime minister might have happened without Trump’s rhetoric. But clearly, Carney – who is seen as the ultimate technocrat in light of his decades as a central banker – won his seat in part due to his strong words to protect Canadian sovereignty as well as his expertise in steering the economy.

Since Carney’s election, Trump’s claims to Canada have subsided, but they are hardly over. At a highly scrutinized Oval Office meeting in early May, Carney told Trump that Canada is “not for sale, it won’t be for sale, ever,” to which Trump responded, “I say, ‘never say never.’”

Canada-U.S. relations remain highly charged at all levels, and Canadian consumers too are feeling less friendly toward their southern neighbor than in the past. The mistrust and broader anxiety is hurting U.S. businesses, and individual states are stepping up to make clear that Trump’s policies are not always reflective of the national mood or even interest. Colorado in particular has stepped up efforts to reach out to Ottawa and the Canadian public at large.

Colorado’s Governor Jared Polis declared March 15 as Colorado Canada Friendship Day to promote investment, cultural, and people-to-people ties between the state and the country. To be sure, Polis is seen to have political aspirations beyond his state’s borders, and some would argue that the establishing a date to celebrate bilateral ties is nothing more than an extension of his expected bid for the U.S. presidency in 2028. Regardless, the state’s move has been a high point in bilateral relations in recent months.

Having national days at the state level is nothing new in itself, but the circumstances for staunch U.S. allies are considerably different from times past. Subnational actors are looking to bypass national institutions to assert their own positions that may be in direct conflict with the federal government.

Until now, national days have been driven by commercial interests. For instance, Texas has promoted itself to the Japanese government and businesses alike as a state where they would be especially welcomed through tax breaks, investments, and other measures. Cities such as Los Angeles have actively courted Japanese, Korean, Taiwanese, and other governments as the gateway for Asian businesses to enter into the United States. Such maneuvers, though, have long been a reflection of a healthy competition between states to attract FDI, and a race to the top to corner lucrative foreign opportunities. These moves also had not gone directly against the federal government’s position vis-a-vis a particular country.

The case of states openly declaring their support and rolling out the welcome mat against countries that have been targeted by the White House is another matter. By declaring themselves pro-Canada, Colorado and New York are de facto confronting the Trump administration as much as they are supporting Canadians. It makes clear that while the current federal policy may be hostile to one country or another, that stance is not necessarily reflective of the sentiment prevailing across the United States.

So far, there has been no coordinated state-level performance to support Greenland or Panama. But given the growing concerns about Taiwan’s security on the one hand and the allure of Taiwanese investments into the United States on the other, states hosting official days to declare their public support for Taipei can go a long way to reassure the Taiwanese public.

As U.S. foreign policy continues to evolve rapidly, the role that cities and states can play to rally support for continued U.S. commitment to the Indo-Pacific will be critical moving forward.