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The Strange Paradox of Australia
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The Strange Paradox of Australia

Australia has transformed from a homogenous and insular country into one of the most diverse, harmonious, outward-looking, and wealthy countries in the world. But it lacks confidence.

By Grant Wyeth

In June, the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) released its population figures for 2024. These figures revealed that Australia’s population as of December 31, 2024 was 27.4 million, an increase of 445,900 from the previous year. This continued steady rise in Australia’s population, with close to 4 million people added to the country over the past decade, has been part of a concerted effort by Australia to increase its capabilities – which it has – although the country remains unsure of itself.

The primary tool Australia is utilizing for this capability enhancement is migration. Last year there were 594,900 people who arrived from overseas. This was tempered with 254,200 departures; therefore the actual increase in the population from migration was 340,800 people.

Australia maintains a strong migration program because its natural population increase is below the replacement level of 2.1 children per couple. Last year, there were 292,400 births. However, bucking international trends, Australia’s birth rate did increase from 1.5 children per couple in 2023 to 1.78 in 2024.

Despite some obvious grumbling from a small, but loud, segment of the population who find change to be threatening, the strategy for Australia to steadily increase its population continues to be a successful one. It has allowed Australia to maintain its high living standards, but it is also a strategy built on a recognition that Australia needs to be a more substantial player in the world.

In an increasingly unstable world, Australia requires a larger population to navigate unpredictable global conditions with confidence and independence. Australia hasn’t quite got to the confidence and independence yet psychologically – the country’s natural disposition is still one of a country far smaller and less wealthy.

This is the strange paradox of Australia. Over the past 75 years – but accelerating from the mid-1990s – Australia has transformed from a homogenous and insular country into one of the most diverse, harmonious, outward-looking, and wealthy countries in the world. This transformation has been an extraordinary success, one that should fuel a national disposition of self-confidence, and subsequently translate into greater independence as an international actor. So far, this has not happened.

Australia still continues to bind itself both practically and psychologically to the United States, even as Washington has become a far less ideologically aligned and more chaotic actor. The instinct that Australia requires a “great and powerful friend” remains so deeply embedded in the country’s psychology that increases in Australia's own power are not enough to dislodge it.

This doesn’t mean that Australia should abandon its alliance with the United States. But there should be a recognition that when Washington operates against Australia’s interests – by seeking to upend the global trading order – or with unilateral aggression, like the bombing of Iran’s nuclear sites last month, Australia doesn’t need to be so deferential and compliant. There’s a way to maintain a strong friendship with the U.S. while forging a path that is independent and undaunted.

Conventional wisdom would assume that as Australia’s numerical weight increases it will become less fretful and more self-assured. Yet this doesn’t seem to be happening, and as the world becomes a more dangerous and unpredictable place, Australia may become less assured of itself, less able to see itself as a country that is capable of shaping its own future, or shaping the world around it.

What this may reveal is the persistence of national character. Although Australia has changed in many ways quite dramatically in even the last 30 years, there is a disposition that remains tied to Australia’s past as a small European outpost in a culturally distinct region. It instinctively sees a world of challenges that it is incapable of handling by itself. This disposition is passed on to new migrants and the newly born Australians alike.

This, of course, doesn’t mean that Australia’s population strategy is futile. The country’s resources and capabilities increase with every new resident, and Australia continues to advance across a variety of fields of human endeavor. There are few places on Earth more advantageous to live. One day this may translate into greater national confidence and a more independent spirit. In the future, Australia may yet see itself as a serious player in international affairs, not a country frightened of being played.

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The Authors

Grant Wyeth is a Melbourne-based political analyst specializing in Australia and the Pacific, India, and Canada.

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