Revisiting Trump’s China Policies

Donald Trump’s first term as president of the United States marked some important shifts in China-U.S. relations, moving from decades of engagement toward explicit confrontation across several areas. During his tenure from 2017 to 2021, the Trump administration adopted aggressive policies on trade, technology, and human rights, reshaping the bilateral relationship.

Now, with Trump poised to re-enter the White House in January 2025, it is helpful to review Trump’s first-term China policies – and China's responses to these moves – with an eye toward the incoming Trump era.

Trade and Economic Decoupling 

The Trump administration’s most defining move against China was arguably its initiation of a trade war. In 2018, the United States imposed tariffs on $50 billion worth of Chinese goods, citing trade imbalances and intellectual property theft. These measures escalated through 2019, ultimately targeting $360 billion in Chinese exports to the U.S.

China responded in kind, imposing tariffs on $110 billion worth of U.S. goods, focusing on agricultural products like soybeans to target Trump’s political base in the Midwest.

Despite these tensions, the administration signed the Phase One Trade Deal in January 2020. Under the agreement, China committed to purchasing $200 billion in U.S. goods and services over two years, focusing on agricultural products, energy, and manufacturing. China also pledged to address intellectual property issues and open its financial markets. However, the agreement did not resolve structural concerns, such as state subsidies or forced technology transfers.

While Beijing accelerated purchases in 2020, the pandemic and ongoing tensions hampered full implementation of the deal.

Moreover, in August 2019, the U.S. Treasury labeled China a “currency manipulator,” accusing Beijing of devaluing the yuan to gain a trade advantage. China strongly denied these allegations, calling the designation a political move, and the label was lifted in early 2020.

The trade war has been documented in great detail, and the effects have been long-lasting.

Technological Decoupling

Another hallmark of Trump’s China policy was the targeting of Chinese technology companies. In May 2019, Huawei, China’s leading telecommunications firm, was added to the Entity List, effectively severing its access to U.S. technology, including semiconductors and software. The Trump administration also pressured allies to exclude Huawei from their 5G networks, framing the issue as a national security risk.

Beijing called these measures unjustified, alleging they were intended to suppress China’s technological rise. In response, China established its own “unreliable entities” list to allow for sanctions on specific U.S. companies.

U.S. export controls were expanded in 2020 to restrict China’s access to advanced technologies, such as artificial intelligence, quantum computing, and biotechnology. Additionally, in August 2020, Trump issued executive orders to ban TikTok, citing concerns over data privacy and national security. These moves faced legal challenges in the U.S., and Chinese officials denounced them as discriminatory, warning of retaliation.

Geopolitical and Diplomatic Actions

The Trump administration adopted a tougher stance on geopolitical disputes, particularly in the Indo-Pacific. The U.S. conducted frequent Freedom of Navigation Operations (FONOPs) in the South China Sea, challenging Beijing’s maritime claims and emphasizing the principle of free navigation. In 2020, then-Secretary of State Mike Pompeo declared China’s claims over the South China Sea as unlawful. Beijing reacted angrily, accusing the U.S. of interfering in regional affairs and destabilizing the region.

Taiwan also became a flashpoint. In 2019, Trump approved a $2 billion arms sale to Taiwan, including advanced F-16 fighter jets, signaling strong support for the island's defense. In 2020, high-ranking U.S. officials visited Taiwan for the first time in decades, further straining China-U.S. relations. China responded by ramping up military activity near Taiwan, including frequent incursions into its air defense identification zone (ADIZ).

In 2020, Trump signed an executive order to end Hong Kong’s special trade status after Beijing imposed a national security law that curtailed freedoms in the city. This move treated Hong Kong as part of mainland China for trade purposes. The U.S. also sanctioned Chinese and Hong Kong officials involved in undermining the city’s autonomy.

China retaliated by imposing its own sanctions on U.S. officials, accusing Washington of hypocrisy and interference in domestic affairs.

Trump’s administration also highlighted human rights abuses in Xinjiang, where over 1 million Uyghurs and other Muslim minorities were detained in camps. In June 2020, Trump signed the Uyghur Human Rights Policy Act, authorizing sanctions against Chinese officials and entities involved in the abuses. Beijing denied the allegations, defending the camps as vocational training centers and imposing sanctions on U.S. officials in response.

The COVID-19 pandemic further exacerbated tensions. Trump frequently referred to COVID-19 as the “China virus,” accusing Beijing of covering up the early outbreak. China pushed back against these accusations, promoting alternative narratives about the virus’ origins and accusing the United States of politicizing the pandemic.

Looking Ahead

Donald Trump’s approach to China will build on the foundations of his first term, with an even greater emphasis on decoupling and confrontation. A second Trump term would likely see the U.S. double down on decoupling its economy from China, particularly in high-tech sectors. Export controls on semiconductors and advanced technologies could be tightened further, targeting industries like AI, robotics, and green energy. Sanctions could also be expanded to include more Chinese firms linked to government subsidies or military activities.

Geopolitically, Trump’s second term could see increased U.S. military deployments in the Indo-Pacific to counter China’s influence, even as an “America First” administration scales down commitments to its regional allies. Trump’s new administration could also impose further sanctions related to human rights abuses in Xinjiang, Hong Kong, and Tibet. Beijing would likely respond with countersanctions, emphasizing its narrative of resisting U.S. hegemony and rallying domestic support against foreign interference.

A second Trump term will likely see more confrontations in the China-U.S. relationship. While such measures could strengthen U.S. leverage, they would also heighten tensions and destabilize global markets.